PopA911 US Election Thread

[Franz Ferdinand]

So as all of you know, the US general election is already ongoing (people have already started voting!) and it's likely to be a close one! Since it's a general election, US citizens will be voting for a new president, and (in some cases) new senators and representatives in congress. I decided to start this discussion thread to encompass all things about this election, so feel free to share your thoughts (and prayers). Let's keep this thread respectful, please!

Some key facts:

• There are 35 senate seats up for election, 23 currently held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats. Currently, the Republicans hold the majority, with 53 seats, while the Democrats hold 45 seats and 2 seats being held by independents. The senate race is very close, with slightly higher chances of the Democrats taking over control, as per FiveThirtyEight's forecast.
• The race for the House is much easier to predict even though, technically, all House seats are up for re-election. In many constituencies, however, it's rare for incumbents to be defeated, and it's likely that the makeup of the House won't change too much. Currently, the Democrats hold the majority, with 235 seats, while the Republicans hold 198. It's very likely that the Democrats will remain in control of the House.
• For the presidential election, it's very likely that the Democratic nominee (Biden) will win the popular vote; however, the US elects presidents through an indirect popular vote, in which each state assigns a number of electors who vote for the winner of their state's popular vote (although faithless electors can and do happen!). The electoral college has a totaly of 538 electors, and a candidate needs to secure at least 270 to win an election. 

As of Oct 14th, poll aggregators and predictors stand as follow (I'll update this regularly):

• FiveThirtyEight gives Biden 334 electoral college votes and Trump 163, with 41 toss-up votes (GA, OH, and IA).
• The Economist gives Biden 319 votes and Trump 164, with 55 toss-ups (GA, OH, IA, and NC).
• Politico gives Biden 279 votes and Trump 179, with 80 toss-ups (FL, AZ, OH, IA, NC, and ME2).
• ABC gives Biden 290 votes and Trump 163, with 85 toss-ups (FL, GA, NC, IA, OH, and ME2).

Anyway, that's all I got for now. Enjoy the discussion and please keep it nice and respectful, y'all. Also, if you're able, vote. Gaga asks that you do. 

Edited October 16, 2020 by Franz Ferdinand

[Gone]

I’ve never watched an election so close and I’m not a US citizen.

[Franz Ferdinand]

1 minute ago, Bakugo said:

I’ve never watched an election so close and I’m not a US citizen.

I'm not either, but I live here now and god knows immigration is a hot button issue so 

[Gone]

1 minute ago, Franz Ferdinand said:

I'm not either, but I live here now and god knows immigration is a hot button issue so 

Wishing the best for the right decision!

[HeavyMetalLover]

I just want it to be over. 

And yes - go vote! 

[Franz Ferdinand]

Just now, HeavyMetalLover said:

I just want it to be over. 

And yes - go vote! 

same tbh, but at the same time, I'm terrified of what's to come

[Aphrodizy26 PronounsShe/They/He]

I have such terrorizing memories of 2016

[Franz Ferdinand]

2 minutes ago, Aphrodizy26 said:

I have such terrorizing memories of 2016

Election night 2016 was horrifying. I remember I was in college and watching it with the whole LGBTQ+ student group. It was so heartbreaking

[Aphrodizy26 PronounsShe/They/He]

9 minutes ago, Franz Ferdinand said:

Election night 2016 was horrifying. I remember I was in college and watching it with the whole LGBTQ+ student group. It was so heartbreaking

Nobody spoke at my job the following day

[NotDoctor PronounsHe/they]

1 minute ago, Aphrodizy26 said:

Nobody spoke at my job the following day

I'm jealous.  I worked with a bunch of ultraconservatives who were loudly celebrating all day while I was silently terrified.  Quit shortly there after.  

I'm not religious but I'm practically praying that this election isn't as traumatic. 

I already voted in PA and I've got all my friends to vote so hopefully we can do this

[Franz Ferdinand]

7 minutes ago, NotDoctor said:

I'm jealous.  I worked with a bunch of ultraconservatives who were loudly celebrating all day while I was silently terrified.  Quit shortly there after.  

I'm not religious but I'm practically praying that this election isn't as traumatic. 

I already voted in PA and I've got all my friends to vote so hopefully we can do this

YEsss! PA is super important this election!

[Gov Hooka Pronounshe/him]

this is Biden's to lose...

the polls have never looked better and before any of yall come for me about 2016, those polls were actually all correct. Hillary losing within the margin of error in all the swing states and flipped midwestern states.

This time around Biden is leading very well in the three states he only NEEDS to win and doing considerably well in several states Trump won and is obviously TROUNCING nationally.

Expect an Obama 08 electoral victory tbqh  

 

Edited October 15, 2020 by Gov Hooka

[NFRockwell PronounsHe/Him]

23 minutes ago, Franz Ferdinand said:

Election night 2016 was horrifying. I remember I was in college and watching it with the whole LGBTQ+ student group. It was so heartbreaking

Nnn I was still in high school and my history teacher was like “well... this is still an achievement since we now have the US’ oldest elected president”  but everyone knew she was hoping Hillary would win. I think back then though there was still this sort of “well let’s give him a chance” kind of energy. But now people know what kind of president he is.

[admin Pronounshe/him]

23 minutes ago, Franz Ferdinand said:

Election night 2016 was horrifying. I remember I was in college and watching it with the whole LGBTQ+ student group. It was so heartbreaking

 

13 minutes ago, Aphrodizy26 said:

Nobody spoke at my job the following day

Same. I was with my best friends and we went from such excitement to utter depression. We had a Hillary cake which we still ate, but it was the worst. 

The next morning I went into work like 90 minutes early cause I couldn’t sleep and just cried off and on all day. A lot others in the office seemed to be doing the same. 

We cannot let this man win again. Vote and get everyone you know to vote Blue, please 

[NotDoctor PronounsHe/they]

3 minutes ago, Gov Hooka said:

this is Biden's to lose...

 

If it were a level playing field I would agree but with the amount of bullshit the Republicans are already pulling and the open voter suppression who knows.  Looking at what they're doing in Texas and California especially makes me think this whole this is gonna be a chaotic mess

[Gov Hooka Pronounshe/him]

Just now, NotDoctor said:

If it were a level playing field I would agree but with the amount of bullshit the Republicans are already pulling and the open voter suppression who knows.  Looking at what they're doing in Texas and California especially makes me think this whole this is gonna be a chaotic mess

both of those states don't matter. to the republicans detriment, the democrat base has NEVER been more energized since 2008. suburban voters and women are defecting from Trump in large numbers and polls have indicated the same white working class voters that voted for Obama and then Trump are defecting back to Biden in large numbers benefitting him in critical states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania 

[Franz Ferdinand]

6 minutes ago, Gov Hooka said:

this is Biden's to lose...

the polls have never looked better and before any of yall come for me about 2016, those polls were actually all correct. Hillary losing within the margin of error in all the swing states and flipped midwestern states.

This time around Biden is leading very well in the three states he only NEEDS to win and doing considerably well in several states Trump won and is obviously TROUNCING nationally.

Expect an Obama 08 electoral victory tbqh  

 

I worry, though, that it's not gonna be clear-cut by election night. So many democrats are voting by mail, that in some of the key states, it might look like Trump is winning early on. And knowing Trump, he's bound to do some shady sh!t and try to call the election early or, if battleground states shift to blue after a few days (because tallying mail-in votes takes a long time) he can claim fraud and ask the SCOTUS to intervene. I put nothing past that man.

[Gov Hooka Pronounshe/him]

1 minute ago, Franz Ferdinand said:

I worry, though, that it's not gonna be clear-cut by election night. So many democrats are voting by mail, that in some of the key states, it might look like Trump is winning early on. And knowing Trump, he's bound to do some shady sh!t and try to call the election early or, if battleground states shift to blue after a few days (because tallying mail-in votes takes a long time) he can claim fraud and ask the SCOTUS to intervene. I put nothing past that man.

That's on the back of my mind and would be a problem if Biden was truly neck and neck with Trump. But that's not the case and Biden is doing good enough. It's smart for the liberal mainstream news media to play up this fear to help drive turnout and energize the Dem base even further.

As much as many want to claim this man is a fascist, he simply isn't. If this truly was fascism Democrats would look foolish saying "vote" as their only leverage to get him out, when they should be fighting and protesting out on the streets. That's not the case and this election seems very clear cut from an empirical standpoint 

[Lorde Von Kok PronounsHe/Him]

[Franz Ferdinand]

5 minutes ago, Gov Hooka said:

That's on the back of my mind and would be a problem if Biden was truly neck and neck with Trump. But that's not the case and Biden is doing good enough. It's smart for the liberal mainstream news media to play up this fear to help drive turnout and energize the Dem base even further.

As much as many want to claim this man is a fascist, he simply isn't. If this truly was fascism Democrats would look foolish saying "vote" as their only leverage to get him out, when they should be fighting and protesting out on the streets. That's not the case and this election seems very clear cut from an empirical standpoint 

I hope you're right, but I have my doubts.